This Remarkable Golden Spell Drives Villa's Improbable Title Charge
It was two months prior when the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping Rogers to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they must confront in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the young forward now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.