Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
