Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
